Atlantic Council

After weekend talks hosted by Russian President Dmitri Medvedev, the Armenian President Serzh Sarkisian and his Azerbaijani counterpart Ilham Aliyev released a joint declaration calling for a peaceful resolution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.  They also pledged to step up negotiations.

Although the declaration only restates previously held positions, it is the first document signed by Armenia and Azerbaijan since a 1994 ceasefire that ended the war, and speculation remains that a breakthrough is possible.

A "frozen conflict" for the last two decades, the dispute over the majority ethnic Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh with Azerbaijan has killed approximately 30,000 people and forced another 1 million from their homes, according to RFE/RL.

Russia announced that it will host Armenian President Serzh Sarkisian and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev on November 2 for talks on a solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.  According to RFE/RL, analysts believe that Russia intends to show its diplomatic side after its invasion of Georgia in August.

The conflict over the largely ethnic Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh within Azerbaijan is two decades old and remains one of the former Soviet Union's "frozen conflicts."  Analysts also suspect that the Kremlin may try to strengthen its influence in the South Caucasus by offering Russian peacekeepers as part of any agreement.

Traditionally, Armenia has allied itself with Russia over the conflict, while Turkey has supported Azerbaijan.  However, a recent visit by Turkish President Abdullah Gul to Armenia, the first by a Turkish head of state, sparked speculation about a normalization of diplomatic relations and a possible breakthrough on a resolution to the conflict.

According to Eurasianet, Georgia appears to have closed its air corridors to supply planes that carry equipment to Russian troops stationed in Armenia.  Armenia-bound commercial planes from Russia are also being blocked from using Georgian airspace.

Although neither Russia nor Georgia has officially confirmed the ban, Russia is now reportedly flying over Iran and Azerbaijan to supply its military base in Armenia.  The shipments are supposedly erratic, as Moscow is having difficulty securing permission to use those countries' airspace on a regular basis.

Russia maintains a base with about 5,000 troops in the western Armenian town of Gyumri.  The base is located near the border with Turkey and has formed a critical component of Armenia's national security policy, allowing Armenia to focus the majority of its military power along the border with Azerbaijan by precluding the possibility of Turkish involvement in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney arrived in Azerbaijan today on the first leg of a trip that will take him to Georgia, Ukraine, and Italy.

CNN reports that Cheney will meet Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev to "iscuss recent events neighboring Georgia, along with Azerbaijan's cooperation in the war on terrorism and its troop contributions in Iraq and Afghanistan" and will also meet with local representatives of BP and Chevron to discuss matters of enegy security.

In Georgia, Cheney is scheduled to meet with President Mikheil Saakashvili to discuss the current crisis with Russia and look "beyond the immediate situation and discuss in depth the need for a comprehensive long-term strategy by the international community to help Georgia recover and rebuild, including the critical task of supporting the democratic choice of the Georgian people to integrate further with Euro-Atlantic institutions, including NATO," a senior administration official says.

The visit to Italy will include an address to the Ambrosetti Forum on the challenges facing the transatlantic alliance and meeting with both Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi and President Giorgio Napolitano.