Atlantic Council

Prime Minister Stephen Harper successfully convinced Canada's governor-general to suspend parliament, avoiding a vote of confidence he most likely would have lost.  The Economist:

Only seven weeks ago Stephen Harper, the prime minister, won a second term for his Conservative government, but once again without winning a parliamentary majority.  Now the three disparate opposition parties—the centrist Liberals, the socialist New Democrats (NDP) and the separatist Bloc Québécois—have ganged up in order to oust the Conservatives and replace them with a centre-left coalition.  That left Mr. Harper scrabbling for survival.

On Thursday December 4th he asked Michaëlle Jean, who as governor-general acts as Canada’s head of state, to suspend Parliament until January [26].  After a two-hour meeting, she agreed to do so.  That means that for now Mr. Harper has dodged a confidence vote scheduled for December 8th that the opposition parties, provided they stick together, were bound to win.  The opposition holds 163 of the 308 seats in the House of Commons.

Their alliance is an unlikely one.  Stéphane Dion, the Liberal leader, is an academic from Quebec who came into politics a decade ago expressly to oppose the French-speaking province’s separatists, represented by Gilles Duceppe and his Bloc Québécois.  Jack Layton, the NDP leader, has spent his career savaging previous Liberal governments.

For the last week, Canada's government has been near collapse as the country faces the prospect of its first coalition government since 1926.  The BBC called Harper's request to the governor-general, who officially represents head of state Queen Elizabeth II, "unprecedented."

CNN reported that Harper has dismissed the idea of a power-sharing coalition: "Harper rejected the idea of a 'power-sharing coalition with a separatist party,' referring to the Bloc Québécois, and insisted the country must stand together."  He has been prime minister since February 2006.

Related Posts:

• Canada's Liberals and New Democrats Forge Coalition Government
• Canada's Conservative Government Nears Collapse
• Canada Election Update: Harper Victory Confirmed

Despite Stephen Harper's Conservatives picking up seats and falling just short of a majority in October's elections, it appears a leftist coalition is set to supplant them in power if Harper loses a confidence vote.

The Liberals and New Democrats signed an agreement on Monday to form an unprecedented coalition government, with a written pledge of support from the Bloc Québécois, if they are successful in ousting the minority Conservative government in a coming confidence vote.

The accord between parties led by Stéphane Dion, Jack Layton and Gilles Duceppe came just hours after Liberal caucus members agreed unanimously that Dion would stay on to lead the Liberal-NDP coalition, with support in the House of Commons from Bloc MPs. The six-point accord includes a description of the role of the Liberal and NDP caucuses, which would meet separately and sit next to each other on the government benches in the House of Commons, Dion told a news conference alongside Layton and Duceppe.

Dion said he has advised Gov. Gen. Michaëlle Jean in a letter that he has the confidence of the Commons to form the government should Stephen Harper's Conservatives be defeated in a confidence vote. The Liberal leader said the parties reached the accord after watching the "sad spectacle" of other countries' governments acting to counter the "unprecedented" global economic crisis while Harper's Conservatives "sat and did nothing."

While this looks odd to Americans and Brits used to a first-past-the-post system, it's not at all unusual in a proportional representation system.  While a strong plurality has preferred the Conservatives in the past two elections, they fell short of a majority, requiring them to form a coalition government.  If they can't maintain that alliance, other minority parties have the opportunity to form a majority of their own.  Given the divergence in governing philosophies of the three parties involved, though, it'll be a neat trick to maintain this coalition for very long.

Stephen Harper's government, given a new mandate only five weeks ago, is on the verge of collapse, Reuters reports.

Canada's minority government teetered on the edge of collapse on Friday, less than two months after its re-election, as opposition parties talked of forming a coalition to replace the ruling Conservatives. Both the Conservatives and the three opposition parties were engaged in high-stakes brinkmanship over the fiscal update that Finance Minister Jim Flaherty presented on Thursday.

The opposition said the update did not contain needed stimulus for an economy increasingly squeezed by the global downturn, but they were most angered by a planned end to direct public financing of political parties. The official opposition Liberals prepared a motion declaring a lack of confidence in the government and expressing the opinion "that a viable alternative government can be formed within the present House of Commons."

Prime Minister Stephen Harper -- who won a strengthened minority in an October 14 election -- said the government would not allow the motion to be presented or voted on until December 8. "While we have been working on the economy, the opposition has been working on a back room deal to overturn the results of the last election without seeking the consent of voters. They want to take power, not earn it," he told reporters.

If neither side blinks, the government will likely fall, and Canada would either head into another election or into some sort of coalition led by the Liberals. The other two opposition parties are the separatist Bloc Quebecois and the left-leaning New Democratic Party.

[...]

If the Conservatives were defeated, Harper would go to Governor General Michaelle Jean -- the representative of Canada's head of state, Queen Elizabeth -- to say he has lost the confidence of Parliament. Jean is in Europe until December 6, but says she is monitoring the situation and is ready to come home early if needed. Harper would undoubtedly ask her to call an election but constitutional experts say she could well decide to invite the opposition to form government instead.

While seemingly an absurd result, Harper's plurality is not a majority.  It's doubtful, however, that a Liberal-Quebecois-New Democrat coalition would be any more successful.

A third natural gas installation has been bombed in northeast British Columbia in less than a month.  The attacks have all taken place late at night and no injuries have thus far occured and the damage has been minor, causing no danger to the public.

"When looking at when and where the attacks occurred it is safe to say that the person or persons responsible knows how to locate the sites and has knowledge of the sites," Royal Canadian Mounted Police Sgt. Tim Shields tells Reuters. "For a person to have this information they would likely have to be from the immediate area or have spent significant time in the area," Shields said.

Stephen Harper's Conservatives have won Canada's general elections, as earlier predicted.  Canada's election agency reported that the Conservatives won or are expected to win 143 of the 308 electoral districts, according to the Press Association.  This represents an improvement on the 127 seats the party held in the previous parliament but still falls short of the 155 needed for a majority.  As such, Harper will again be forced to lead a coalition government.

Canada's Conservatives are expected to emerge victorious in general elections Tuesday, staying in power as well as winning the country's third election in four years, the Australian reported.  Two of the three national Canadian television channels have predicted the party to win, with polls showing the Conservatives leading in 110 of 308 districts.

Stephen Harper is once again expected to become Prime Minister, after leading a minority government since January 2006.  The exact size of his caucus remains to be seen.

Speaking Tuesday on Canada's plans to withdraw its troops from Afghanistan in 2011, Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper said the country was not avoiding any duties by sticking to the timeline.  According to Reuters, he stated, "I don't think it's viable, knowing the history of Afghanistan, what we know about it, to believe that foreigners are going to be able to run Afghanistan or Afghan security on an ongoing basis."

The remarks echo recent comments from the outgoing commander of UK forces in Afghanistan that cast doubt on the chances of a conclusive victory over the Taliban.  Canada heads into a general election on October 14.

A high-ranking U.S. Coast Guard officer has stressed the potential for conflict if competing Arctic border claims are not resolved before polar ice caps melt further, the BBC reported late Wednesday.  The U.S., Russia, Canada, and Norway are all engaged in territorial disputes, and as sea ice continues to recede at record levels, previously impossible resource extraction may become a reality.

Coast Guard training exercises to secure energy infrastructure have already begun, and more military bases are in the planning stages.  Also, China has sent a research vessel close to the North Pole, and Russia maintains a fleet of ice-breaker ships.  The officer urged for political resolution as increasingly large areas of ocean become available to boat traffic each year.

Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper will call early elections to be held on 14 October, a spokesman tells BBC, in what will be the third national election in just over three years. 

A recent poll shows a surge in popularity for Harper, whose Conservative Party  won the 2006 elections but is 28 seats shy of a majority in parliament.