Atlantic Council

Our new poll asks, "Who is most to blame for the current violence in Gaza?" Is it Hamas, whose refusal to stop terrorist rocket attacks on Israeli civilians provoked the attacks? Or is it Israel, for swatting at a gnat with a sledgehammer?

In a post titled "Transatlantic Differences," Alex Massie muses about how differently Americans would react than Brits to news that two members of the shadow cabinet of the conservative party had entered (separately) into homosexual civil unions.

The president of France today announced a plan to get more ethnic minorities into more prominent positions. President Nicolas Sarkozy, impatient with what he said was the slow pace of promoting diversity in France, announced measures Wednesday to put more ethnic minorities on TV screens, in political parties and in elite schools.

Our most recent poll, asking "How will the Mumbai attacks affect India-Pakistan relations?" showed much more optimism among Europeans than Americans. In the United States, a whopping 71 percent see renewed conflict and a mere 21 percent see closer cooperation. In Europe, only 47 percent saw renewed conflict and 32 percent predict closer cooperation.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy has postponed controversial Lycee reforms after a week of student demonstrations that many feared could escalate into violence.   AFP: Weeks of student protests forced Sarkozy's government to put a plan for high school education reform on ice amid fears that opposition from the streets could spread social unrest like that seen in Greece.

China postponed a summit with the EU scheduled for next Monday in France because of planned visits between the Dalai Lama and European heads of state, the FT reported:

The Chinese government requested the meeting be postponed because several EU leaders, including President Nicolas Sarkozy of France, were planning to meet the Dalai Lama, Tibetan spiritual leader, the EU said in a statement.

The bloc said it regretted China’s decision to call off the summit, due to take place in the French city of Lyon, given the financial and economic crisis spreading around the world.  "The EU, which had set ambitious objectives for the 11th EU-China summit takes note and regrets China’s decision.  The EU will continue to promote a relationship of strategic partnership with China, particularly at a moment when the global economic and financial situation calls for very close co-operation between Europe and China."

In December, the Dalai Lama will meet with Sarkozy in Poland as well as visit the Czech Republic and the European Parliament in Belgium.  Tensions between the EU and China have been particularly pronounced this year:

Chinese anger over European leaders willingness to meet the Dalai Lama has put severe strain on its relationships with several capitals, including London, Berlin and Paris.

Relations between China and France, holder of the EU’s rotating presidency, have been especially fraught this year.  There were violent protests in Paris against the parading of the Olympic torch en route for Beijing following the repression of riots in Tibet.  Anger over French criticism prompted a boycott of French businesses and goods by Chinese consumers.  Mr. Sarkozy threatened to boycott to the games’ opening ceremony unless Beijing entered a dialogue with the exiled Tibetan leadership.

Reuters also noted increased strain on EU-China relations, especially over trade disputes:

At a meeting between Asian and EU leaders in Beijing last month, the EU side backed a greater say for China in global financial bodies but urged China to use its clout to help to resolve the global crisis.  The mood for that meeting was strained by a decision a day earlier by the European Parliament to award its annual human rights prize to Hu Jia, a Chinese dissident jailed for subversion after testifying to the assembly last year.

[...]

This month Brussels imposed anti-dumping duties on Chinese-made candles and non-alloy steel products and added tariffs to imports of some citrus fruits products.  China routinely denies it breaks trade rules and says Europe resorts to protectionism against its low-cost advantage.

Sarkozy intends to move ahead with plans to meet the Dalai Lama, a French official said.

The French president's penchant for summits is wearing on both European and U.S. officials, the IHT said Wednesday:

President Nicolas Sarkozy of France left the summit meeting on the financial crisis here last weekend in a triumphal mood, declaring that it had tamed the animal spirits of American capitalism. Then he went home and announced that he would hold his own summit meeting in a few weeks in Paris — on the same topic.

That has raised hackles in diplomatic circles, not just because the meeting appears to compete with a planned gathering of 20 world leaders next April.

[...]

Making matters worse, Sarkozy said nothing about his plans to convene a meeting to President George W. Bush or the 18 other leaders while he was here. A senior European diplomat said he found the French proposal "amazing," while an American official said that that would be a charitable description.

Sarkozy certainly cannot be accused of taking France's EU presidency lightly.  After calling various European summits in Paris to address the financial crisis, he was a vocal supporter of meetings for global finance ministers and central bankers, the G7, and the G20.  The IHT suggests Sarkozy is trying to top the U.S. in an area where France claims authority—market regulation:

Sarkozy's aggressive statements have put American officials on edge, with some saying that he seemed determined to turn the global crisis into a referendum on the ills of untrammeled capitalism.

[...]

The surfeit of summit meetings reflects what has become a tense trans-Atlantic contest over the global economy. Much of this is posturing by ambitious leaders, but it also reflects a genuine philosophical debate about how best to fix the fractured global markets.

On one side is Sarkozy, the supercharged French leader, determined to keep the initiative on what many in Europe regard as a long-overdue discussion of the excesses of American-style capitalism.

It will be interesting to see how the summit plays out.  Scheduled to take place less than two weeks before Obama's inauguration, from January 8-9, the meeting is being described by French officials as merely a conference to bring together world leaders and thinkers.

However, with the Economist already calling Sarkozy "the president who loved summits," one feels there may still be a few more meetings in store next year.

The Times published an interesting exchange between Sarkozy and Putin from the August ceasefire talks on Georgia, leaked courtesy of Sarkozy's chief diplomatic advisor Jean-David Levitte:

[After Putin said he wanted to hang Georgian president Saakashvili], Mr. Sarkozy thought he had misheard.  "Hang him?" — he asked.  "Why not?" Mr. Putin replied.  "The Americans hanged Saddam Hussein."

Mr. Sarkozy, using the familiar tu, tried to reason with him: "Yes but do you want to end up like [President] Bush?"  Mr. Putin was briefly lost for words, then said: "Ah — you have scored a point there."

Russian President Dmitri Medvedev told the Federal Assembly on November 5 that he will deploy SS-26 Iskander short-range semi-ballistic missiles in the heart of Central Europe.

Russian President Dmitri Medvedev, meeting yesterday with French counterpart Nicolas Sarkozy, seemed to back off his threat to deploy missiles along the border with Poland and Lithuania, albeit with a string attached.  NYT:

On Friday, the Russian leader argued instead that all countries “should refrain from unilateral steps” before discussions on European security next summer.

Mr. Sarkozy, who presided over the meeting between Russia and the 27 European Union nations in his capacity as the union’s president, helped ease the way for Mr. Medvedev’s retreat. The French leader supported the idea of talks on a new security architecture for Europe and suggested that they could be held by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe in June or July.

UPI's report makes clear that reciprocation is expected:

At a joint news conference with Medvedev, Sarkozy criticized U.S. plans to install components of a missile shield in Poland and the Czech Republic, The Guardian reported. "Deployment of a missile defense system would bring nothing to security in Europe," he said. "It would complicate things."

Russia has threatened to install missiles in Kaliningrad if the United States moves forward with its plans. The big unknown is whether President-elect Barack Obama would follow up on President George W. Bush's missile defense plan.

Obama has made his willingness to hold talks with foreign leaders without preconditions a central tenet of his international relations platform, so one suspects he'll take up the offer to negotiate.