Atlantic Council

We are seeing a familiar pattern repeating itself. A dispute between Naftohaz and Gazprom leads to an interruption in Ukraine's gas supply. Deliveries to Europe are affected. Russia is criticized for its use of "the energy weapon". Then, everything is patched up, the gas flows again and the West loses interest in the matter until the next dispute flares up.

Four months after the hot phase of Russia’s war on Georgia, Russia continues to violate the European Union-brokered ceasefire agreements of August 12 and September 8.  Notwithstanding, the EU on December 2 resumed Partnership and Cooperation Agreement talks with Russia, which it had suspended September 1 in the wake of Russia’s August assault on Georgia. 

Russia is threatening to cut off gas flows to Ukraine on January 1 if Kyiv does not fork over $2 billion in late payments and finalize new gas prices for 2009.  However, a stop in gas supplies now will be different than it was in January 2006; this time around Ukraine has amassed enough reserves to get it through the winter (as has Germany). 

Hakimullah Mehsud makes an eloquent practical argument for development of the East-West Corridor that runs from the Black Sea to the Caspian, across Georgia and Azerbaijan.  His Taliban guerillas are attacking NATO supply convoys traveling from Pakistan to Afghanistan and they recently struck a major logistics depot in the Pakistani town of Peshawar. 

Gazprom has purchased a controlling 51 percent stake in Serbia's state oil company, NIS.  Equally as significant, Dmitry Medvedev and Serbian president Boris Tadic also signed a declaration of intent to include Serbia in the planned South Stream pipeline that will supply gas to Europe. 

The United States and Georgia will sign a "strategic partnership treaty" in the New Year, AFP reports. "Georgian Minister of Foreign Affairs Grigol Vashadze and the US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice will sign a strategic partnership treaty on January 4 in Washington," foreign ministry spokeswoman Khatuna Iosava told AFP. 

Moscow and Kiev are once again on a collision course over gas supplies. WaPo: Russia and Ukraine appear to be heading for a new collision over natural gas that could disrupt supplies to Europe this winter, with Russia threatening to stop selling the fuel to Ukraine on Jan. 1 if it does not repay more than $2 billion in debt.

The OSCE's mission in Georgia, which opened in 1992, is coming to a close.  Veronika Oleksyn for AP: OSCE chair Finland called a meeting Monday morning to seek a three-month extension to the mandate, which expires on Dec. 31, to allow time for more negotiations on the mission's future. It had been the topic of behind-the-scenes discussions for some time.  "Unfortunately, there was no consensus on this decision," said Antti Turunen, Finland's ambassador to the OSCE, after the closed-door gathering.

More than four months after the hot phase of Russia’s war on Georgia, Russia continues to violate the European Union-brokered ceasefire agreements of August 12 and September 8. Russia agreed to return to pre-August 7 lines and to withdraw its forces from areas of Georgia adjacent to the separatist territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. It has done neither.

NATO and Russia are talking again for the first time since the August invasion of Georgia, AP reports. NATO Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer and Dmitry Rogozin, Moscow's ambassador to the alliance, met over lunch Friday in the first high-level meeting after a four-month hiatus caused by the war.