NATO Reset With Russia, but With Reassurance

Jorge Benitez — Thu, 09 Sep 2010 10:53:12 -0400

From Linas Linkevicius, the International Herald Tribune: The strategic concept will have to explain to our societies what NATO stands for in the 21st century. Allies approach this task from two different perspectives. On the one hand they have to convince their publics that NATO is not a useless relic of the Cold War. On the other hand — and this is especially true for the new allies — they believe that NATO must remain true to its core purpose: collective defense. ...

As NATO prepares to respond to new challenges — cyber defense, energy security, terrorism, piracy, etc. — it is imperative that this not be done at the expense of its core principle. ...

I believe that reassurance is related not only to a particular concrete threat or ally, but rather to the political will and readiness to fulfill the basic task of the alliance — collective defense. Reassurance is about getting our troops ready and interoperable. ...

I fail to see how relations with Russia should in any way be conditioned by NATO’s reassurance policy. It is a false connection, whether it is presented positively — that reassurance would encourage historically sensitive allies to have better relations with Russia — or negatively (as argued by Ambassador Wolfgang Ischinger and Admiral Ulrich Weisser in the International Herald Tribune) — that engagement with Russia cannot be reconciled with military reassurance, which in the view of its proponents means defense planning against Russia.

Reassurance should not be a factor in NATO-Russia relations. ...

We are well aware of Russia’s concerns regarding NATO “encirclement.” And there are no fundamental differences within NATO in assessing the state of affairs inside Russia; the discussions, however, are on the tactical level, about how to move ahead.

One approach asks what NATO can do to encourage change in Russia. Those who advocate this approach are reluctant to raise divisive issues in order to not undermine the process. I would say that under this approach, we are pushing not only the “reset” button, but also “delete” — deleting memory, commitments, obligations.

Another approach is based on a belief that common interests should not trump values. Relations with Russia suffered as a consequence of its actions and policies, first of all in Georgia. This approach maintains that it is impossible to make progress toward healthy relations if Russia does not do its part in respecting existing treaties, political commitments and institutions.

Linas Linkevicius, former defense minister of Lithuania, is Lithuania’s permanent representative to the North Atlantic Council. (photo: Sgt. Rocco DeFilippis/U.S. Marine Corps)

Deployment of Russian S-300 missiles in Abkhazia no threat to region - Kouchner

Jorge Benitez — Tue, 07 Sep 2010 12:27:26 -0400

From RIA Novosti: The deployment of Russia's S-300 air defense systems in Abkhazia does not disturb the balance of power in the region, French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner said on Tuesday.

"What Russia has deployed in Abkhazia are anti-missile systems, and I don't see any serious disturbance to the balance in the region," Kouchner said during a press conference with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Paris.

"They don't pose any threat to anybody," he added.

Russia said in mid-August that it had deployed S-300s in Abkhazia - a statement that angered Georgia but failed to surprise Washington, which said the systems appeared to have been in place for the past two years.

Context: France and Germany concerned over Russia's S-300 deployment in Abkhazia. (photo: Matt Campbell/AFP)

Moscow plays both sides on Nagorno-Karabakh

Jorge Benitez — Mon, 06 Sep 2010 11:25:08 -0400

From the International Institute for Strategic Studies: Russia is striking a new balance in its relations with Armenia and Azerbaijan, which have long been at loggerheads over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev was in Baku on 2–3 September to meet Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, continuing to promote warmer ties between their countries after a history of diplomatic distance. The visit followed unconfirmed reports of a major sale of Russian arms to Azerbaijan. Meanwhile, Russia and Armenia – traditionally Moscow's closest political ally in the South Caucasus – signed a new military agreement during a recent trip to Yerevan by Medvedev.

Moscow's two-sided strategy seems partly designed to keep up pressure on the two countries to avoid a renewal of conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. In addition, its latest moves serve its interests by strengthening its security presence and relationships in the region, and boosting revenue from arms sales. ...

Although many Azerbaijanis understand that their country lacks the military capabilities needed to win, Baku has been using increasingly aggressive rhetoric, vowing not to accept the status quo and to exercise its right to restore its territorial integrity by force. 'The war is not over,' Aliyev warned on 10 August. 'We should be ready at any moment to liberate our lands... We have mobilised all financial resources to strengthen our military, and today Azerbaijan's army… can fulfil this task.' He added: 'If the negotiations do not bring results, we will be compelled to solve the conflict by military means.'

Such statements reflect the growing concern in Azerbaijan that Armenia is only taking part in peace negotiations to buy time, and does not intend to begin withdrawing forces from occupied territories. Azerbaijan is also concerned that Kosovo's independence and Russia's recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia could set a precedent for Nagorno-Karabakh.

While Armenian forces seem able to defend themselves, it is not obvious that they would receive Russian military assistance in any renewed conflict with Azerbaijan. Despite Armenia's CSTO membership and the new agreements signed by Medvedev few in Moscow believe Russia would automatically intervene on the side of Armenia. CSTO guarantees were recently thrown into question when Russia rejected a request from Kyrgyzstan for the organisation to send forces to quell violence in its southern region of Osh. And although Medvedev reiterated in August that Armenia was Russia's ally, his chief foreign-policy aide Sergei Prikhodko later stressed that Russia was not saying it would defend Armenia against Azerbaijan. Russia recognises the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan and might stand back if military operations were not affecting the territory of Armenia proper or the Russian base there.

Against this background, Russia's military diplomacy may be prompting a change in the strategic calculations on either side. Moscow is keeping them both guessing. (graphic: International Institute for Strategic Studies) (via Global Europe)

Lukashenko says Moscow 'thugs' may be behind embassy attack

Jorge Benitez — Wed, 01 Sep 2010 14:49:49 -0400

From RIA Novosti: [Belarusian President Alexander] Lukashenko told journalists on Wednesday that a theory about Moscow's involvement in the incident was "interesting" and that police would investigate it.

"Most likely, they probably needed this incident. To demonstrate how bad Lukashenko is - why, he nearly carried out that "terrorist attack," as they put it, on his own. Thugs and scoundrels! There is nothing else I can say," the Belta state-run news agency quoted Lukashenko as saying.

He accused Moscow of orchestrating media attacks on him, apparently referring to a series of documentaries recently shown on the Russian TV, which portray Belarus as a country with political repression, no media freedom and rigged elections, ruled by "Europe's last dictator. ..."

Relations between Russia and Belarus have been strained over a host of issues lately, including energy and the South Caucasus. Earlier in August the Kremlin accused Lukashenko of failing to honor a promise to follow Russia's lead in recognizing the former Georgian republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. (photo: Sergei Guneev/RIA Novosti)

The Geo-Strategic Impact of Russian-Armenian Defense Deal

Jorge Benitez — Thu, 26 Aug 2010 13:57:23 -0400

From Andrei Trenin and Dmitri Trenin, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Armenian President Serzh Sarkisian signed a protocol last week prolonging the two countries' 1995 bilateral defense treaty. While the protocol is deemed a mere prolongation of the existing treaty, there are important new features.

First, Russia undertakes to guarantee Armenia's territorial integrity in its entirety, and not just its borders with Turkey and Iran, as before. This pledge is already contained in the current Russian military doctrine, which calls an attack on any member of the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) an attack on all. Azerbaijan, which talks about using all means necessary to restore control over Nagorno-Karabakh, is being put on notice: war against Armenia is not an option.

Second, Russia is signaling it is not about to leave anytime soon. The treaty with Armenia has been extended through 2044. This is becoming a trend: earlier this year, Ukraine agreed to host the Russian Black Sea Fleet through 2042. Russian strategists are beginning again to think in the long term. Some analysts believe this trend will continue in Moldova. From Moscow's perspective, however, it is crucial to consolidate a military presence in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, Central Asia's two fragile states sharing the potentially explosive Ferghana Valley and situated too close for comfort to Afghanistan.

Thus, Russia is busy creating a security system around its perimeter. All his differences with Moscow notwithstanding, Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka has recently dropped his objections to chairing the CSTO. Two years after the war with Georgia, Russia has become entrenched militarily in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. It has also intensified contacts with Ukraine and Moldova, neither of which belongs to the CSTO. And next month, Medvedev is due in Baku.

Dmitri Trenin is director of the Carnegie Moscow Center. His son, Andrei, is an independent security and energy analyst. (photo: Getty) (via Global Europe)

Tensions flare between Kremlin, Belarus strongman

Jorge Benitez — Sat, 14 Aug 2010 09:20:21 -0400

From Stuart Williams, AFP: The Kremlin on Saturday accused the strongman president of Belarus of dishonourable and inconsistent behaviour, in one of the most venomous clashes yet between Russia and its one-time obedient ally.

Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko, for years a loyal servant of Moscow, accused his Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev of distorting remarks he made about the recognition of Georgian breakaway regions.

The Kremlin reacted furiously with a scathing personal attack on Lukashenko and threatened to publish a full transcript of an official meeting to back up its case.

"It's not for Alexander Grigoriyevich (Lukashenko) to talk about inconsistency," Medvedev's top foreign policy advisor Sergei Prikhodko said in a statement on Russian news agencies.

"It is to him that this description perfectly applies," he added.

The row has erupted over whether Lukashenko -- known at home as 'Batka' or 'Dad' -- promised to recognise the breakaway pro-Moscow Georgian regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent. ...

In a veiled threat, he [Prikhodko] added: "We can also publish other remarks of Alexander Lukashenko which would not be uninteresting for both Belarussian and international society."

A source within the Kremlin administration took the attack a step further: "The dishonour and inconsistency of Alexander Lukashenko on this question (of Abkhazia and South Ossetia), and on many others, became the norm long ago." (photo: Reuters)

Leader of Belarus seeks strategic relations with U.S.

Jorge Benitez — Sat, 14 Aug 2010 09:00:20 -0400

From Andrei Makhovsky, Reuters: Belarus's outspoken leader Alexander Lukashenko, long at odds with the West but lately quarreling with Moscow, said on Friday he wanted better ties with the United States and berated his estranged ally Russia. ...

"We can, and we would like, to normalise relations with America, and we do not hide this," state media quoted Lukashenko as saying during a visit to Belarus's central Minsk region.

"We have many themes for negotiations, we have proposals from our side as well as proposals from the American side. I believe these issues can be resolved. ..."

"America stays on its position, but Russia has sharply changed its stance, trying to bring the president of Belarus to heel before the well-known political events," he said.

"But you have known me for ages -- it is impossible to bend me and trying to do so is useless. ..."

In Friday's remarks, he blamed Moscow for failing provide incentives to Belarus that would offset any negative consequences of recognising the breakaway Georgian regions. (photo: Getty)

France and Germany concerned over Russia's S-300 deployment in Abkhazia

Jorge Benitez — Thu, 12 Aug 2010 12:10:03 -0400

From RIA Novosti: The French Foreign Ministry has said the deployment of Russian S-300 air defense systems in the former Georgian republic of Abkhazia undermines stability in the region.

Russian Air Force head Col. Gen. Alexander Zelin said on Wednesday S-300 systems had been placed in Abkhazia to protect the airspace of Abkhazia and the other former Georgian republic of South Ossetia. He did not say how many S-300s had been deployed.

"We are concerned about [Russia's] announcement about the deployment of air defense systems in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. It [deployment] harms stability in the region," a spokeswoman for the French Foreign Ministry told a news conference in Paris.

France acted as an intermediary in the settlement of a five-day conflict between Russia and Georgia over South Ossetia in August 2008. ...

On Wednesday, the Georgian Foreign Ministry described the Russian move as "extremely dangerous and provocative," saying it threatened "not only the Black Sea region, but European security as a whole." (photo: Dmitry Korobeynikov/RIA Novosti)